Just two months ago, if you’d asked me about the upcoming 2026 Oscars, I would have predicted a pretty typical and predictable awards season. Recent years have been dominated by clear favorites like Everything Everywhere All At Once, Oppenheimer, and Anora, and it seemed like this year would follow the same pattern.
With the 98th Academy Awards just days away, the race for Oscars has become much more unpredictable. Some previously likely winners have lost momentum, while others have surged forward, and even contenders once thought out of the running are now back in contention.
Now that voting has ended, here are my predictions for who will win at the 2026 Oscars in the biggest categories. I’ll first discuss the main storylines and points of contention, and then reveal my choices. You’ll find a list of the major awards at the end so you can check how accurate my predictions are on Oscar night.
After 15 years of closely following the Oscars, I have a good sense of what really matters in an awards campaign versus just online chatter. I’ve watched all the films up for the major awards, kept track of the early awards shows, and spoken with experts throughout the season. Plus, I’ll be at the Dolby Theater on Sunday night to see if my predictions come true.
Best Picture: A Two-Horse Race With A Surprise Winner
One Battle After Another has been the Best Picture favorite since the start of the season.
Many believe this could finally be Paul Thomas Anderson’s year. He’s directed some of the most acclaimed American films of the 21st century, but hasn’t received much recognition from the Academy. There Will Be Blood narrowly lost Best Picture, and while The Master and Phantom Thread were well-received, they didn’t gain much awards traction. His latest film, One Battle, is both critically acclaimed and a box office success, making it a surprising contender with audiences. Importantly, the film feels timely, exploring themes of authoritarianism, immigration, revolution, and the powerful forces shaping American society.
Yet another of Warner Bros’ 2025 original projects has slowly pulled into view
To be honest, I didn’t really start considering Sinners as a major contender until later in the awards season. Even then, I thought its best chance was for Best Original Screenplay. That award often goes to films with unique ideas and genre elements – movies that aren’t typically Best Picture winners. I might have been relying on past patterns, since in the last four years, only Oppenheimer won Best Picture without also winning its nominated Screenplay award.
When Sinners received a record-breaking 16 nominations, perceptions started to change. Unlike even popular fantasy films like The Lord of the Rings (where The Return of the King won 11 awards but received no acting nominations), Sinners earned four acting nominations, establishing it as the first major horror contender since The Silence of the Lambs.
| Best Picture Frontrunner Stats | Sinners | One Battle After Another |
|---|---|---|
| Budget | $90-100M | $130-175M |
| Box Office | $370M | $209M |
| Oscar Nominations | 16 | 13 |
| Precursor Wins | 1 | 3 |
As a huge fan, I was thrilled with how much recognition ‘One Battle’ received! Michael B. Jordan absolutely deserved Best Actor at the Actor Awards, and it was amazing to see the whole cast win Best Ensemble too. But it didn’t stop there – the movie swept the awards season, winning at both the Producers Guild and Directors Guild! And the writing was celebrated as well, with Ryan Coogler taking home the award for Original Screenplay and Paul Thomas Anderson winning for Adapted Screenplay from the Writers Guild. It was a fantastic night for everyone involved!
| Best Director Frontrunner Stats | Ryan Coogler | Paul Thomas Anderson |
|---|---|---|
| Prev Best Picture Noms | 2 | 3 |
| Prev Director Noms | 3 | |
| Director Precursor Wins | 4 |
Right now, it looks like either One Battle After Another or Sinners could win, but I’m leaning towards Sinners. I predict Sinners will win Best Picture, and Paul Thomas Anderson will be named Best Director. I also think both films will win awards for their screenplays.
Despite that creative race, I would expect a more varied set of acting races.
Acting Awards: Or, Why Timothée Chalamet Won’t Win
Focus Features
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Nordisk Film
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Warner Bros. Pictures
Jessie Buckley is the clear frontrunner to win Best Actress at the Oscars. She’s already swept all the major pre-Oscar awards – the Golden Globe, SAG Award, BAFTA, and Critics’ Choice – a feat rarely accomplished without an Oscar win. The last time someone won all those awards and didn’t win on Oscar night was Russell Crowe, and that was due to unusual circumstances. While Glenn Close lost in 2019 to Olivia Colman, Close hadn’t won the BAFTA and her campaign focused more on her long career. Buckley’s performance is receiving widespread acclaim, and the film The Bride! not being a box office success won’t affect her chances.
As a huge movie fan, I’m really pulling for Amy Madigan to win Supporting Actress. Her performance as Aunt Gladys in Weapons was absolutely chilling and completely took over every scene she was in – honestly, one of the most powerful performances I’ve seen in ages! She’s definitely a strong contender, but there’s some tough competition. Teyana Taylor was the one everyone was talking about initially for One Battle After Another, but her momentum seems to have slowed down a bit. And Wunmi Mosaku took home the BAFTA for Sinners, which might give her a boost, even though the BAFTAs sometimes lean towards British actors. It’s going to be a close race!
Many people believe Sean Penn, Delroy Lindo, or Stellan Skarsgård will win Supporting Actor, and it’s a tough call. However, I think Penn is the most likely winner. Despite not actively campaigning or seeming interested in the award, his performance as Colonel Lockjaw is incredibly captivating. He perfectly embodies the film’s critical look at American power and delivers the most impressive performance of the nominees. While Skarsgård and Lindo deserve recognition for their long careers, and both truly represent the idea of a ‘supporting’ role – Skarsgård especially by consistently highlighting his fellow actors – Penn is simply more enjoyable to watch.
Now let’s talk about the Best Actor category – it’s become surprisingly competitive. Timothée Chalamet was the clear favorite ever since Marty Supreme came out. Despite some people being turned off by his aggressive promotion and frequent interviews, it seemed almost certain he’d win. Four weeks ago, I thought there wasn’t anyone else with a real chance, leading to a likely split vote against Chalamet. But that’s changed – a strong contender has emerged.
| Precursor Award | Best Actor | Best Actress | Best Supporting Actor | Best Supporting Actress |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCA | Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) | Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) | Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) | Amy Madigan (Weapons) |
| Golden Globes | Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) / Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) | Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) / Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You) | Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) | Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) |
| BAFTA | Robert Aramayo (I Swear) [not nominated for Oscar] | Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) | Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) | Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) |
| Actor Awards | Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) | Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) | Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) | Amy Madigan (Weapons) |
Michael B. Jordan recently won an Actor Award and delivered a truly memorable acceptance speech. This happened at a crucial time – right when Oscar voters were making their decisions – and likely boosted his chances of winning an Oscar. Last year, Timothée Chalamet won the same award but his speech was seen as overly self-promotional, which hurt his Oscar prospects. Jordan’s speech had the opposite effect, and it’s now highly probable that Michael B. Jordan will win Best Actor at the Oscars.
Predicting the winner in the new Casting category is tough, as there’s no clear indication of how voters are leaning. However, considering the Screen Actors Guild’s enthusiasm for Sinners and its strong showing in the acting nominations, Francine Maisler seems like the most likely winner. It’s disappointing that the creative character development in The Secret Agent or the impressive scope of One Battle After Another weren’t recognized more strongly.
Looking back, it’s surprising how much things have changed this year. If I’d finalized my selections back in January, I would have chosen only about half of what I’m choosing now, and even fewer with strong confidence. Here’s a list of all the nominees, for anyone who’s interested or wants to see how my picks have evolved.
| Award | Predicted Winner |
|---|---|
| Best Picture | Sinners |
| Best Director | Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) |
| Best Actor | Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) |
| Best Actress | Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) |
| Best Supporting Actor | Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) |
| Best Supporting Actress | Amy Madigan (Weapons) |
| Best Casting | Francine Maisler (Sinners) |
| Best Original Screenplay | Sinners (Ryan Coogler) |
| Best Adapted Screenplay | Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another) |
We’re kicking off our final week of Oscar coverage! Over the next few days on MovieWeb, we’ll explain how Oscar betting odds are figured out, and we’ll bring you live reporting from inside the Dolby Theater on the night of the awards.
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2026-03-11 15:38