What Went Wrong With ‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’s Box Office

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While still performing exceptionally well – it’s been the top movie domestically and globally for five weeks, earning $368 million in the US and $1.3 billion worldwide – Avatar: Fire and Ash is currently tracking to earn less than the previous two Avatar films. This might seem surprising, as these are impressive numbers for most franchises. However, the original Avatar remains the highest-grossing film ever made with $2.9 billion, and Avatar: The Way of Water earned $2.3 billion. Both films were the year’s biggest box office hits, both in the US and around the world.

Unlike its predecessors, Avatar: Fire and Ash isn’t performing as strongly at the box office. While it’s still doing well, its numbers are dropping faster than the previous Avatar films. At the start of 2025, many predicted it would be the year’s highest-grossing movie, but the competition has been tougher than anticipated. It now seems unlikely to reach $2 billion worldwide – a first for the franchise. Domestically, it may even be surpassed by films like A Minecraft Movie and Lilo & Stitch, and globally, Ne Zha 2 and Zootopia 2 are performing better. This raises questions about why the film is underperforming and what this means for the future of the Avatar series.

‘Fire and Ash’ Might Be Too Close to ‘The Way of Water’


20th Century Studios

I remember when the first Avatar came out in 2009 – it totally blew everyone away! No one expected it to be such a huge success, but it ended up making more money than even Titanic! For years after, I kept hearing people say a sequel was a bad idea, that the moment had passed. It had been 13 years, and they thought it was too late. But honestly, I think that wait actually helped Avatar: The Way of Water. It brought back all the good feelings from the first movie, tapped into the renewed excitement for 3D, and just felt right given how things were back in 2009. It was amazing to think there were even kids seeing the new one who weren’t even alive when the original came out!

Unlike the first Avatar and The Way of Water, Avatar: Fire and Ash didn’t have the excitement of being something completely new or a long-awaited return. Released just three years after its predecessor, it’s performing as a typical sequel would. If Avatar 4 is made, waiting a longer period – perhaps ten years – could help it succeed.

‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ Has Received Mixed Reviews From Fans


20th Century Studios

As a big movie fan, I’ve been following the buzz around Avatar: Fire and Ash, and honestly, the word of mouth seems a little more split than it was for the first two Avatar films. It still got a good ‘A’ score from audiences (CinemaScore), which is great, but a lot of people – both fans and critics – are saying the story feels pretty familiar. It’s kind of like we’ve seen this before: Jake Sully uniting different Na’vi clans and riding those awesome Taruks to fight the humans, just like in the first movie. And the big finale, where they’re trying to protect the Tulkun from the RDA, feels a lot like what happened in The Way of Water. It’s not necessarily a bad thing, but it’s definitely a pattern!

One reason for this is that the story of Avatar: Fire and Ash was initially planned as part of The Way of Water. The sequel grew so large that James Cameron divided it into two films, but both movies ended up with a remarkably similar climax. While Fire and Ash does put its own spin on these elements, the ending feels a bit too familiar for audiences. This could also affect how many people will want to see the movie more than once, which has always been crucial to the Avatar films’ success at the box office.

‘Avatar 3’ Has Faced Surprising Competition


Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures

Each Avatar film has faced strong competition when released in theaters. The first Avatar competed with Sherlock Holmes and Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel during a busy holiday season. Avatar: The Way of Water had to compete with Puss in Boots: The Last Wish and M3GAN, both of which still became successful films despite being released alongside it. Now, Avatar: Fire and Ash is performing well, and may even be taking away some of The Way of Water‘s audience, despite The Way of Water being the top movie for five weeks.

Films such as The Housemaid, Primate, 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple, and Marty Supreme appeal to similar audiences as Avatar: Fire and Ash, particularly older viewers. Marty Supreme even gained momentum during awards season and became A24’s highest-grossing domestic film, attracting a lot of attention from Gen Z. For family entertainment, Zootopia 2 has been a huge success, performing remarkably well even though it was released three weeks before The Way of Water. Zootopia 2 is now Walt Disney Animation’s most successful movie ever and the highest-grossing Hollywood animated film of all time, and it’s projected to be Disney’s biggest hit of 2025, with Avatar: Fire and Ash expected to come in second.

Unlike the first Avatar film, Fire and Ash had to compete with streaming services. Netflix released the final episodes of the popular series Stranger Things over the Christmas and New Year’s holidays, and it even played in some theaters on New Year’s Eve, drawing away potential viewers. While Fire and Ash was the biggest movie during December and January, there were many other options available in theaters and for streaming at home, which made it harder to attract a large audience.

What Does This Mean for More ‘Avatar’ Films?


20th Century Pictures

Before the release of Avatar: Fire and Ash, James Cameron stated that the future of Avatar 4 and 5 relied on how well the third movie performed in theaters. He’d already written the scripts for Avatar 4 and even filmed some scenes, planning for a time jump to accommodate the growing child actors. Cameron had previously said Avatar: The Way of Water needed to earn $2 billion to warrant making more films, and it did, leading to Fire and Ash. Now, the question is whether the Avatar series can continue if Fire and Ash doesn’t also reach the $2 billion mark.

Currently, Avatar: Fire and Ash is the 24th highest-grossing movie worldwide. It’s expected to climb the ranks quickly and soon surpass films like Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Deadpool & Wolverine, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2, Black Panther, and The Super Mario Bros. Movie, potentially becoming one of the top 20 highest-grossing films ever. Avatar: The Way of Water earned more money globally than all three Marvel movies released in 2025 combined, which totaled $1.31 billion.

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Even if Avatar: The Way of Water earns around $1 billion globally, it will still be among Disney’s most successful movie franchises, especially overseas. Disney has significantly invested in Avatar, including attractions at its theme parks, with plans for more at Disney’s California Adventure. Disney may space out future Avatar films, allowing audiences to build anticipation, similar to what they did with The Way of Water.

Although James Cameron is 71, Disney and 20th Century Studios likely won’t make fans wait a full 13 years for the next Avatar movies. However, there’s no need to hurry Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 because the next three December releases are already filled with Marvel films – including Avengers: Doomsday in 2026 and Avengers: Secret Wars in 2027, with another Marvel movie planned for 2028. Currently, Avatar 4 is scheduled for December 21, 2029, and Avatar 5 for December 19, 2031, but Disney could postpone those dates to give the Avatar franchise more space and potentially use those December slots for one of the many Star Wars films Lucasfilm is developing.

Although Avatar: Fire and Ash isn’t breaking box office records like the first Avatar, it’s still performing very well. Considering Disney had several major disappointments in 2025 with films like Snow White, Tron: Ares, and Elio, they’re likely very pleased. Avatar: Fire and Ash, along with Lilo & Stitch and Zootopia 2, are actually three of the year’s biggest hits for them.

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2026-01-21 16:19