The Most Unlikely Best Picture Winner Of The Century Happened 21 Years Ago

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The Oscars are just weeks away, and most predictions suggest One Battle After Another will win Best Picture. While a surprise victory for Sinners is possible, One Battle After Another is the clear frontrunner, largely due to its success at other major awards shows leading up to the 98th Academy Awards.

The Golden Globes, Producers Guild Awards, SAG Awards, Directors Guild Awards, Writers Guild Awards, BAFTA Awards, and Critics’ Choice Awards have all become major indicators of Oscar success. Winning in key categories at these events often strongly predicts which film will win Best Picture.

Awards like the Golden Globes, PGA Awards, BAFTA Awards, and Critics Choice Awards all have categories for top films. Additionally, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) honors outstanding casts, the Directors Guild of America (DGA) recognizes directing achievements, and the Writers Guild of America (WGA) celebrates screenwriting. Looking at the past 30 years, a film generally needs to win at least three of these awards to be considered a serious Oscar contender – in fact, 79% of Best Picture winners this century have achieved this level of success.

Because Slumdog Millionaire and Argo had already won the top prize at seven major award shows, their Best Picture wins felt predictable. However, these precursor wins sometimes allow for genuine surprises, like when Parasite beat 1917 in 2020, Moonlight triumphed over La La Land in 2017, and Crash unexpectedly won over Brokeback Mountain in 2006. But the biggest upset in Best Picture history actually occurred the year before those wins.

Million Dollar Baby Is The Oscars’ Most Surprising Best Picture Winner This Century

Clint Eastwood’s boxing drama, Million Dollar Baby, was a big winner at the 2005 Academy Awards, taking home four Oscars from its seven nominations. Eastwood himself won Best Director and Best Picture – awards he’d previously won before. Million Dollar Baby triumphed over other highly-regarded films like The Aviator, Ray, and Sideways in those key categories.

Leading up to the 2005 Oscars, it didn’t seem like Million Dollar Baby was a strong contender for Best Picture. While the film received plenty of attention – especially for Clint Eastwood’s direction and Hilary Swank’s award-winning acting – this recognition didn’t consistently lead to wins at major award shows that often predict the Oscars.

As a huge movie fan, I always find it fascinating to look at awards season predictors. It’s incredible to me that Million Dollar Baby only snagged one win – Clint Eastwood’s directing award from the DGA – before taking home Best Picture. In fact, it’s the only film from this century to achieve that with just one precursor win! Looking back, Braveheart did the same thing about thirty years ago, winning Best Picture with only a screenwriting award to its name. It just goes to show, sometimes a film’s impact can outweigh the usual awards momentum.

While Eastwood’s film received nominations for major awards like Best Motion Picture – Drama at the Golden Globes, Best Theatrical Motion Picture from the PGA, and Best Cast from the SAG Awards, it wasn’t recognized by the WGA, CCA, or BAFTA.

2005 Oscars Precursor Scorecard
Golden Globes (Drama) Golden Globes (Comedy/Musical) PGA SAG Best Cast DGA WGA Adapted WGA Original Critics’ Choice Awards BAFTA
The Aviator Sideways The Aviator Sideways Million Dollar Baby Sideways Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind Sideways The Aviator

Had it won any of the awards it was nominated for, it would have seemed like the frontrunner for Best Picture. However, The Aviator and Sideways were much stronger contenders heading into the 77th Academy Awards. The Aviator had won three earlier awards, and Sideways had won four.

Everyone expected The Aviator to win Best Picture. It led the Oscars with 11 nominations, and Martin Scorsese had been nominated five times before without a win. Given that Scorsese hadn’t yet won Best Director either, many believed The Aviator would finally earn him an Oscar.

Ultimately, Million Dollar Baby won Best Picture, and the Oscars finally recognized Martin Scorsese’s talent two years later with The Departed. Given how much weight these awards ceremonies now carry, it’s hard to imagine another Best Picture winner as surprising as the one in 2005.

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2026-02-27 20:31