Zoe Saldaña was a major awards contender last year, ultimately winning Best Supporting Actress, but the upcoming Oscars in 2026 could see a different outcome. Several fantastic performances are already emerging as potential winners at the 98th Academy Awards, and I’m excited to follow the competition for the award – known as the Ebaster – again this year.
Generally, the Best Supporting Actress Oscar goes to someone who hasn’t won one before. In fact, only five women have ever won this award after already receiving an Oscar: Shelley Winters (who previously won in 1959), Helen Hayes (won Best Actress in 1931/1932), Ingrid Bergman (won Best Actress in 1944 and 1956), Maggie Smith (won Best Actress in 1969), and Diane Wiest (won in 1986).
This pattern is expected to hold true in 2026. Most of the actresses competing for Best Supporting Actress haven’t won an Oscar yet, even though they’ve been working in the film industry for a long time – sometimes for decades. Several have been nominated before but haven’t yet taken home the award.
The Best Supporting Actress race has a lot of fresh faces for Academy voters to look at, and several compelling stories and campaigns that could change things up. Here’s where things stand right now, but I’ll be keeping you updated throughout the Oscars season as the situation evolves.
Commentary and predictions updated on October 31
The Best Supporting Actress Nomination Frontrunners
Things have really shaken up in the Best Supporting Actress race lately. Some actresses have seriously gained ground, while others have lost steam – a few have even fallen out of the running altogether. So, with everything that’s happened, here’s my latest take on who I think will be nominated for the Oscars in 2026.
| Rank | Actress | Movie |
|---|---|---|
| 1) | Ariana Grande | Wicked: For Good |
| 2) | Teyana Taylor | One Battle After Another |
| 3) | Elle Fanning | Sentimental Value |
| 4) | Gwyneth Paltrow | Marty Supreme |
| 5) | Regina Hall | One Battle After Another |
With audiences now seeing Wicked: For Good and sharing their thoughts, Ariana Grande is looking like a strong contender for Best Supporting Actress. She was nominated last year for her excellent performance as Glinda, so many people already expected her to be recognized again this year.
Ariana Grande is receiving a lot of praise for her complex portrayal of Glinda, especially because the story in the Wicked: For Good movie adds more depth to the character. Since the film expands on Glinda’s story compared to the stage show, it’s likely Grande will maintain her current success and remain a strong contender for award nominations.
Now that some time has passed since their roles in One Battle After Another, people are starting to see Teyana Taylor and Regina Hall in a new light. Taylor’s character, Perfidia, is bold and commanding, while Hall’s Deandra is more understated. Though both actresses have received positive reviews, Taylor seems to be gaining more attention and support.
While Chris Hall has more experience and many believe he’s deserving of recognition, it’s Nicola Taylor who’s been getting the buzz. She received a nomination at the Gotham Awards, and it seems her performance is making a bigger impression on viewers, despite her having less screen time than Hall.
I’ve moved Hall to fifth place because I think she’s in danger of being overlooked. Whether she remains a contender, becomes a serious winner, or gets eliminated depends on how she performs in the remaining awards shows.
Elle Fanning is gaining recognition for her role, with critics praising her performance. Graeme Guttmann of ScreenRant gave the film a perfect score and highlighted that Fanning has several scenes where she really shines as the character Rachel Kemp.
The big question surrounding Dakota Fanning and her film, Sentimental Value, is whether she’s the sole nominee in this acting category. Her Norwegian co-star, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, has been gaining attention for her role as Agnes, and could potentially be nominated instead of Fanning if the film only receives one nomination in this category. Alternatively, both actresses could be nominated, but that would likely mean either Taylor or Hall would be left out.
Gwyneth Paltrow’s performance in Marty Supreme is gaining attention and has boosted her chances of appearing in the top five predicted contenders. Following a well-received premiere at the New York Film Festival, viewers have responded positively to the film, and Paltrow’s role specifically. Voters may feel similarly, potentially leading to another win for her, after her 1999 victory for Shakespeare In Love.
Look, it’s been a while since Gwyneth Paltrow delivered a truly Oscar-worthy performance, so there’s a definite ‘comeback narrative’ at play here, and that could really boost her chances. Plus, with Marty Supreme getting attention in multiple categories, that overall momentum helps. However, she’s facing an uphill battle – historically, winners in this particular category haven’t often translated that success into further awards recognition, and she’ll need to break that pattern.
Actresses Still In The Mix
Now that Gwyneth Paltrow is being considered, Emily Blunt’s chances of being nominated have decreased. Despite the film not doing well in theaters, some people thought the strong acting performances might still earn the cast consideration. However, that now seems less likely, even for a previous nominee like Blunt.
It’s not too late for Emily Blunt and A24 to improve their Oscar campaign, but they face a tough challenge. They need some of the current frontrunners to stumble, and several other actors are still hoping to become strong contenders before nominations are announced on January 22, 2026.
| Actress | Movie |
|---|---|
| Amy Madigan | Weapons |
| Emily Blunt | The Smashing Machine |
| Emily Watson | Hamnet |
| Felicity Jones | Train Dreams |
| Glenn Close | Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery |
| Hailee Steinfeld | Sinners |
| Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas | Sentimental Value |
| Jamie Lee Curtis | Ella McKay |
| Jennifer Lopez | Kiss of the Spider Woman |
| Kerry Condon | Train Dreams |
| Kirsten Dunst | Roofman |
| Laura Dern | Jay Kelly |
| Nina Hoss | Hedda |
| Odessa A’zion | Marty Supreme |
| Rebecca Ferguson | A House of Dynamite |
| Thomasin McKenzie | The Testament of Ann Lee |
| Wunmi Mosaka | Sinners |
| Zoey Deutch | Nouvelle Vague |
I still believe an actress from the film Sinners could become a contender. Hailee Steinfeld and Wunmi Mosaku seem like the most likely candidates. Steinfeld is further removed from her previous Oscar nomination in 2011 for True Grit, which could help her chances. Mosaku has also received a nomination from the Gotham Awards, which is a positive sign.
Several actresses from potential Best Picture winners could also be in the running for awards. These include Emily Watson for her role in Hamnet, Laura Dern in Jay Kelly, Rebecca Ferguson in A House of Dynamite, Felicity Jones and Kerry Condon in Train Dreams, Odessa A’zio in Marty Supreme, and Thomasin McKenzie in The Testament Of Ann Lee.
Many people are enthusiastically supporting Amy Madigan’s performance in Weapons, and some believe she’ll be nominated for an award. However, since the film isn’t expected to receive nominations in other categories, I’m unsure if the studio will actively push for her until we see more signs of support from award precursors.
While Jennifer Lopez (known for Kiss of the Spider Woman) and Kirsten Dunst (Roofman) didn’t gain much awards momentum from their recent films, Nina Hoss (Hedda) could improve her chances now that her movie is available on Prime Video and gaining wider recognition.
Zoey Deutch (known for Nouvelle Vague) needs her movies to spark more discussion when they come out if she wants to become a stronger awards season competitor. Meanwhile, Jamie Lee Curtis (Ella McCay) and Glenn Close (Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery) are hoping their past successes with voters will give them a boost later in the awards season.
Predicted Best Supporting Actress Winner
Many predict this will be a strong contender at the 2026 Oscars, and Ariana Grande has a genuine chance of winning Best Supporting Actress. She actively campaigned for recognition last year, hoping to win over voters, but wasn’t successful.
Ariana Grande is now considered the likely winner. Ever since last year, voters have been anticipating a chance to recognize her with an Oscar if she excelled in the Wicked sequel. The early reactions to Wicked: For Good confirm that Grande delivers a truly captivating performance.
Ariana Grande is currently the clear frontrunner and likely to win. While the cast of ‘One Battle After Another’ will likely receive votes, they might divide the support, potentially allowing the strong fanbase of ‘Wicked’ to give it the edge.
Based on everything I’ve seen, I’m predicting Ariana Grande will win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 Oscars. But we’ll have to wait and see if my prediction holds true!
ScreenRant‘s additional Oscars predictions:
- Oscars 2026 Predictions In All 24 Categories: Nominees & Winners
- Oscars 2026 Best Picture Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Director Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Actor Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Actress Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Supporting Actor Predictions: Nominees & Winner
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2025-10-31 23:26