With awards season heating up, the Best Actress category at the Oscars 2026 is looking incredibly competitive – it’s really tough to call! After enjoying tracking the race last year and seeing Mikey Madison win, I’m excited to do it again. I’ll be sharing ScreenRant’s predictions for who might take home the award this year, and I’ll keep you updated as things develop.
It’s still too early to confidently predict who will win Best Actress in 2026, especially after the close competition between Madison (in Anora) and Demi Moore (in The Substance) last year. The field is incredibly strong, with many talented actresses who have either won awards before, been nominated, or are hoping to earn their first nomination.
The competition is really heating up now that the most anticipated films of 2025 are being released, letting audiences finally see the performances everyone’s been talking about since film festivals began. Standout performances include Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You and Emma Stone in Bugonia, both of which have been major talking points.
Over the next few months, as awards season kicks into high gear, we’ll start to see which films are real Oscar contenders. I’ll share my current predictions, but I’ll be updating them regularly as the season progresses, leading up to the nomination announcements on January 22, 2026.
Commentary and predictions updated October 30
The Best Actress Nomination Frontrunners
Because this race is currently unpredictable, I’m focusing on initial responses to the films, their chances at the Oscars overall, and past trends to make my prediction. Here’s my current forecast for the 2026 Best Actress nominations:
| Rank | Actress | Movie |
| 1) | Jessie Buckley | Hamnet |
| 2) | Renate Reinsve | Sentimental Value |
| 3) | Emma Stone | Bugonia |
| 4) | Cynthia Erivo | Wicked: For Good |
| 5) | Amanda Seyfried | The Testament of Ann Lee |
Most awards experts believe Cynthia Erivo will likely be nominated again this year, following her nomination for Wicked last year. Even though the film isn’t widely released yet, initial reviews are very positive and suggest she’s a serious contender.
A more dramatic and heartfelt portrayal of Elphaba could really showcase Cynthia Erivo’s talent and increase her chances of winning an award. If the Academy loves the movie Wicked: For Good, both Erivo and Ariana Grande (who might be nominated for Best Supporting Actress) could potentially win awards.
Emma Stone’s chances in this category have decreased a bit. While everyone loved her performance when the film premiered at Venice, the movie itself isn’t looking like as strong an awards contender as her previous collaborations with the director, The Favourite and Poor Things. Those films earned her both a Best Supporting Actress nomination and a Best Actress win.
Emma Stone is well-liked in Hollywood and has a strong track record with the Academy Awards. She previously won for La La Land, and while her recent win for Poor Things was unexpected – many thought Lily Gladstone would win for Killers of the Flower Moon – it shows Stone can succeed even when not considered the frontrunner. This makes her a strong contender and able to outperform other nominees.
Jessie Buckley is a strong contender for an award, largely due to her role in the film Hamnet. The movie is considered a likely Best Picture winner, and Buckley’s performance as Agnes, William Shakespeare’s wife, is a key reason. She was previously nominated for an Oscar three years ago for The Lost Daughter, so many voters already know her work.
People are starting to notice her acting, and she was even nominated for a Gotham Award for her lead role.
Renate Reinsve is a strong contender for recognition for her role in Sentimental Value. She previously captivated viewers at Cannes with her performance in Joachim Trier’s The Worst Person in the World, though that didn’t result in an Oscar nomination. This time, however, many believe she could not only be nominated, but potentially win.
I used to consistently rank Byrne among my top five, largely because of the lasting impact of her work in If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You. However, that fifth spot now feels less certain. Her recent Gotham Award nomination shows continued appreciation for her performance, but Amanda Seyfried is gaining momentum for her role in The Testament of Ann Lee.
Amanda Seyfried received an Oscar nomination for her work in Mank, and she’s again gaining awards buzz for The Testament of Ann Lee. The film sparked a lot of positive conversation after premieres at both the Venice and Toronto film festivals, with many praising her performance. Based on this, I currently believe she has a slight advantage in securing one of the final Oscar nominations.
Actresses Still In The Mix
This year, Academy voters have a strong pool of actresses to choose from, including both established stars and rising talents. Sydney Sweeney’s performance in Christy and Chase Infiniti’s in One Battle After Another could make them contenders for recognition.
I’ve been hearing a lot about Sweeney’s boxing movie, and even the reviews that aren’t completely glowing admit she’s incredible in it – really transforms herself for the part. She’s already a huge star, and honestly, an Oscar nomination feels like the natural next step to cement her status in Hollywood. It would be a well-deserved recognition of her talent.
| Actress | Movie |
|---|---|
| Amanda Seyfried | The Testament of Ann Lee |
| Cate Blanchett | Father Mother Sister Brother |
| Chase Infiniti | One Battle After Another |
| Emma Mackey | Ella McCay |
| Jennifer Lawrence | Die, My Love |
| Jodie Foster | A Private Life |
| Julia Roberts | After the Hunt |
| June Squibb | Eleanor the Great |
| Kate Hudson | Song Sung Blue |
| Laura Dern | Is This Thing On? |
| Lucy Liu | Rosemead |
| Sydney Sweeney | Christy |
| Tessa Thompson | Hedda |
Several past Oscar winners are also in the running for awards this year, including Jennifer Lawrence (known for Die, My Love), Laura Dern (Is This Thing On?), Julia Roberts (After the Hunt), Jodie Foster (A Private Life), and Cate Blanchett (Father Mother Sister Brother).
Although After the Hunt didn’t generate much excitement, it might already hurt Roberts’ chances at a major awards campaign. Foster and Blanchett both need their films to become more popular if they want to improve their odds. Meanwhile, Lawrence received a nomination from the Gotham Awards, suggesting his performance could finally break a decade-long streak without an Oscar nomination.
Kate Hudson’s performance in Song Sung Blue is generating buzz, and she’s being campaigned for an award here instead of in the Best Supporting Actress category. Critics generally like the film, and her acting has received particular praise. It’s still uncertain whether she’ll gain enough support to break into the top five contenders.
Keep an eye on Lucy Liu (in Rosemead), June Squibb (Eleanor the Great), Tessa Thompson (Hedda), and Emma Mackey (Ella McCay) – they could all be first-time Oscar nominees. Plus, Byrne is still a strong contender, and nominations from the Gotham Awards for both her and Thompson are keeping their performances in the awards conversation.
Chase Infiniti is also expected to be submitted for Best Actress, rather than a supporting role, by Warner Bros. This move prevents competition with her fellow cast members, Regina Hall and Teyana Taylor, who are both aiming for supporting actress nominations.
It remains to be seen if the Academy will acknowledge her first leading role in a film, or if other actors from the show One Battle After Another will be favored instead.
Predicted Best Actress Winner
While it’s still too soon to say who will definitely win at the Oscars, Jessie Buckley seems to be the leading contender for Best Actress. Though the film Hamnet involves William Shakespeare, it primarily tells the story from his wife, Agnes’s, point of view. Early reviews suggest Buckley delivers a powerfully moving performance that deeply affected many viewers.
This kind of emotional impact is very effective during Oscar season. If she truly connects with voters, her performance could be incredibly memorable, which is why she’s already a strong frontrunner for a nomination. While other actors could still gain ground, it currently seems like Buckley is the clear favorite and has the most to lose.
Since gaining attention for her performance in the 2018 film Wild Rose, the actress has steadily risen to prominence, appearing in critically acclaimed movies like The Lost Daughter and Women Talking. With a major role planned for 2026 in The Bride!, winning an Academy Award for her work in Hamnet could make next year a truly memorable one for her career.
While she’s currently a frontrunner, any of the other predicted nominees could still gain momentum as the season progresses. Some might say she’s reaching her peak too soon. However, the broad release of her work, Hamnet, in November could generate renewed critical acclaim and boost her chances.
Right now, I’m predicting Buckley will win Best Actress at the 2026 Oscars. That could change, but she seems like a strong contender and might easily win the award.
ScreenRant‘s additional Oscars predictions:
- Oscars 2026 Predictions In All 24 Categories: Nominees & Winners
- Oscars 2026 Best Picture Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Director Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Actor Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Supporting Actor Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Supporting Actress Predictions: Nominees & Winner
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2025-10-30 21:08