One Battle After Another’s First Major Awards Win & What It Means For The Oscars Best Picture Race

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Even before its release, Paul Thomas Anderson’s film, One Battle After Another, was considered a strong contender for major awards. After it came out, the focus shifted to predicting how many awards it would receive, including potential wins at the 98th Academy Awards. Many now believe One Battle After Another is the likely winner of the 2026 Best Picture Oscar.

Before the Oscars next March, several award shows will give us a good idea of which films are leading the pack. The Gotham Awards just concluded, and One Battle After Another took home the top prize for Best Feature. This win is significant because it beat out other films also expected to compete for Best Picture, including Hamnet, Bugonia, and Train Dreams.

As a film buff, I always pay attention to the Gotham Awards – they’re the first big show of the season and can really set the tone for how the conversation goes. Even though the voters for the Gothams are completely different from those at the Academy Awards, I can’t help but wonder if One Battle After Another‘s win is a hint of what’s to come at the Oscars. But looking back, winning at the Gothams doesn’t guarantee anything when it comes to Best Picture – it’s definitely not a sure thing!

Winning Best Feature At The Gotham Awards Doesn’t Guarantee A Best Picture Oscar Win

The Gotham Awards have recognized outstanding feature films since 2004, giving us over two decades of past winners to consider when looking at the recent win for One Battle After Another.

At the very least, PTA’s film is almost certain to receive a Best Picture nomination. It was unlikely to be overlooked anyway, considering that 13 out of the last 21 winners of the Gotham Award also went on to be nominated for the Oscars’ top prize.

Out of thirteen films considered, six went on to win Best Picture: The Hurt Locker (2009), Birdman (2014), Spotlight (2015), Moonlight (2016), Nomadland (2020), and Everything Everywhere All At Once (2022). The other seven films did not receive the top prize.

As a movie buff, I always check the Gotham Awards, but honestly, history tells us only about 28% of their Best Feature winners actually go on to win Best Picture at the Oscars. So, while One Battle After Another winning at Gotham is great news, it’s definitely not a guarantee. A lot can happen during awards season, and another film could really gain momentum with the Academy.

It’s still uncertain whether this film will ultimately win, but it’s quickly become the frontrunner. After early positive reactions, it’s established itself as the one to watch, and its win at the Gotham Awards confirmed that status. A loss now would suggest other films are equally favored by industry insiders.

Although One Battle After Another is gaining even more momentum, the movies that might challenge it for awards have shifted. Like winning at the Gotham Awards can help with Oscar success, a loss here is also significant and worth noting.

One Battle After Another’s Main Competition Looks Different After The Gothams

©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection

Lots of movies are competing to be the best, but Hamnet has been a strong contender for a while. However, its chances of winning an Oscar have decreased after it didn’t win Best Feature.

Only two films have lost at the Gotham Awards but gone on to win the Oscar for Best Picture: 12 Years a Slave (2013) and Anora (2024). Several other recent Gotham nominees—including Hamnet, East of Wall, Familiar Touch, Lurker, Bugonia, Train Dreams, The Testament of Ann Lee, If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You, and Sorry, Baby—could potentially repeat this success, though their chances of winning an Oscar are quite different.

Beyond boosting its own chances, the Gotham Awards results likely hurt Hamnet, a major competitor to One Battle After Another. To win, Hamnet now needs to perform strongly with voters throughout the rest of the awards season and capitalize on any weaknesses shown by One Battle After Another.

Looking at past results, a film not from Gotham actually has a stronger chance of winning Best Feature this year, especially against One Battle After Another. Historically, the seven films that won Best Feature but didn’t get a Best Picture nomination all lost to movies that the independent film community overlooked. Films like Sinners, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Frankenstein fit that pattern and could be strong contenders.

Both Sinners and Marty Supreme are strong contenders, with Marty Supreme gaining significant attention before its release. They seem well-placed to capitalize if Hamnet‘s popularity decreases and potentially become the leading choice.

Okay, so awards season is still wide open, and there are a bunch more prizes to be given out before the Oscars. Honestly, if One Battle After Another keeps racking up wins like it did at Gotham, it could just run away with Best Picture. But Marty Supreme is definitely gaining momentum, and if Sinners continues to connect with voters and snag some important wins, we’re looking at a really tight race. It’s anyone’s game right now, and I’m loving the suspense!

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2025-12-02 19:09