Fantastic Four Box Office Dips 42% on Saturday Showing Signs of Front-Loading and Diminishing MCU Momentum

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Although the media portraying Disney/Marvel’s latest Fantastic Four film might present an optimistic image, the decline in weekend box office sales may raise some eyebrows at Disney (also known as the House of Mouse).

This past summer was filled with blockbuster superhero movies, and on July 25th, Marvel Studios’ “The Fantastic Four: Initial Ventures” made its theater debut, generating excitement as it promised a revival of the franchise.

Under the guidance of director Matt Shakman, this upcoming movie features Pedro Pascal, Vanessa Kirby, Joseph Quinn, and Ebon Moss-Bachrach portraying Marvel’s legendary family. The goal is to breathe new life into the franchise following less successful adaptations in the past.

Initially, the box office figures show a mixed scenario: the start domestically was robust yet below expectations, followed by a steep drop during the first weekend, hinting that the initial excitement among fans might not lead to wider, lasting popularity.

A Strong Start Followed by a Steep Slide

2025 saw “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” launch strong with a staggering $24.4 million from Thursday previews, outperforming all other films of the year so far. This was just barely ahead of DC’s “Superman” which took in $22.5 million. With this impressive start, the combined Friday total (including previews) reached an impressive $57 million, placing it as the second-largest opening day of 2025, trailing only behind “A Minecraft Movie” with its record-breaking $57.1 million.

To begin with, the initial estimates pointed towards earnings of roughly $120 million to $125 million in the first three days within the U.S., and a few industry experts are hopeful that it might even exceed the opening weekend of Superman, which was $125 million.

On Saturday, there was a harsh reminder of the situation: earnings dropped to $33.2 million, representing a significant decrease of 42% compared to Friday’s earnings (before adjustments). This decline is more pronounced than recent drops for superhero films like Superman (-33%), Deadpool & Wolverine (-36%), Captain America: Brave New World (-32%), and Thunderbolts (-22%).

Initial projections showed Sunday’s earnings at approximately $27.8 million, representing a 16% decrease from Saturday’s figures. This brought the domestic total to roughly $118 million, falling short of expectations that predicted it would reach anywhere between $125 million and $135 million. The actual numbers were below the higher end of these forecasts, as well as the anticipation generated by pre-release speculation.

The trend of having an initial surge of attendance by devoted fans, followed by a decline on subsequent days, could indicate a possible decrease in casual viewers who used to fuel the success of Marvel productions.

The pattern where opening days attract passionate fans but later days see a drop-off might suggest that less committed viewers are less likely to show up now, as they once did for Marvel movies.

One expert observed that after lockdowns, the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) has been experiencing more front-loaded releases, and the movie “First Steps” seems to mark a new high point in this pattern, suggesting that regular viewers might be feeling a bit tired of the brand.

Family-oriented blockbusters performed 13% below expectations in rural and suburban areas, as these areas accounted for only 17% of the audience (compared to the typical 21% for PG-13 superhero films), with children under 13 making up just 8%. This suggests that the audience demographic for these types of movies might be more urban or skewed towards older audiences.

International Struggles Amplify Concerns

Worldwide, the movie is projected to earn around $220 million to $230 million during its debut, having already made $49.2 million internationally as of Friday. Latin America and Europe displayed some vigor, with Mexico earning the highest at $4.1 million, followed by the UK ($2.8 million) and France ($2.7 million). However, some major markets underperformed.

In China’s box office, The Fantastic Four struggled once again, falling out of the top five films. On its sixth day, The Fantastic Four First Steps earned a soft $1.7 million across over 40,000 screenings, marking the lowest Saturday attendance for any Marvel Cinematic Universe film. Instead of growing as expected on its second day, it experienced a decline of 4.6% compared to its opening day.

— Luiz Fernando (@Luiz_Fernando_J) July 26, 2025

As a movie enthusiast, I was taken aback when I learned that China, a stronghold for the Marvel Cinematic Universe, only managed to earn approximately $1.7 million on its Saturday release, marking a 4.6% decrease from the previous day. Typically, we’d see significant boosts like the +12.8% increase Superman once experienced in similar scenarios. The projections for its opening weekend suggest it may only make between $4.5 million and $5 million, which is less than expected for a film of this caliber.

In China, word-of-mouth reviews are divided, with a Douban rating of approximately 6.2 out of 10, and some critics referring to it as “the poorest Saturday performance ever for the MCU” in the market, predicting a drop of over 95% in its second week.

In addition to facing local rivalry, this has led to less impressive outcomes. Globally, predictions suggest earnings between $100 million and $105 million over the weekend; however, the subdued performance in Asian markets is causing concern about its potential success in the long run on a global scale.

Or:

Asia’s box office receipts were not as strong as anticipated due to local competition, which may signal potential difficulties for this film’s long-term international success. The overall forecast indicates earnings of $100 million to $105 million over the weekend; however, the underperformance in Asian markets has raised concerns about its global legs.

In comparison to earlier Marvel Cinematic Universe films released in 2025, such as Captain America: Brave New World and Thunderbolts, which had disappointing box office starts ($181 million and $162 million respectively), First Steps performed reasonably well but didn’t indicate the blockbuster success Marvel was hoping for prior to its upcoming Avengers film.

Audience Metrics vs. Box Office Reality

it received an A- grade from CinemaScore, boasts a 92% positive audience rating on Rotten Tomatoes, and has firm recommendations from audiences aged 35 and above.

Enthusiasts have lauded its blend of nostalgic futurism and innovative Marvel Cinematic Universe introduction, with some describing it as a “reinvigorating” project. The film’s appeal to premium audience members was evident, as IMAX and large-format screens accounted for approximately 40% of the weekend earnings.

However, the weekend’s internal drops contradict this optimism.

Budget and Implications for MCU’s Future

To cover its production costs, marketing expenses, and still turn a profit in theaters, the movie titled “First Steps” must gross between $600 million and $650 million globally.

If the performance trend continues as it is, it seems likely that the final domestic earnings will be approximately $300 million, similar to how recent Marvel Cinematic Universe films like Captain America: Brave New World and Thunderbolts ended up with $200.5 million and $189.9 million respectively.

Worldwide estimates suggest a potential range between $650 million and $770 million. However, if we act swiftly, there’s a chance we might be able to keep the total lower.

The presence of long-running movies such as Superman and Jurassic World: Rebirth during their respective weekends has weakened family moviegoer numbers, too. If word-of-mouth doesn’t improve the situation, First Steps may end up being part of the post-2020 MCU releases that started with a bang but quickly lost momentum.

To put it simply, The Fantastic Four: First Steps started off well and surpassed previous series performances, but its 42% drop on the second day and lower-than-expected international response suggests that interest is waning outside of dedicated followers.

For Marvel Studios, this suggests a necessity for more intimate fan interactions to maintain the Marvel Cinematic Universe’s previous unmatched supremacy. As summer comes to an end, everyone is eagerly waiting to see how the film performs during its second weekend, as this will indicate whether it can continue its run or if it encounters another obstacle in the ongoing tale of the multiverse.

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2025-07-27 19:58