‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’ Faces Several Contenders at the Box Office

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James Cameron jokingly called himself “king of the world” after the huge success of Titanic, and after Avatar became a blockbuster, he earned the title of “king of the box office.” However, even though Avatar: Fire & Ash reached $1 billion worldwide in under a month, it faces tougher competition than expected. Considering the film cost between $350 and $400 million to make, simply earning $1 billion isn’t enough to guarantee success, even for a box office leader like Cameron.

The third Avatar movie still has a good chance of earning over $2 billion, but it’s facing increasing competition. While director James Cameron has been incredibly successful with the previous films, this one might not perform quite as well financially as they did.

‘Avatar: Fire & Ash’s Box Office Success Thus Far, Explained


20th Century Pictures

James Cameron has consistently delivered blockbuster films, starting with Titanic, which was the first movie to earn over $1 billion. He then surpassed even that success with Avatar, a visually stunning film that grossed nearly $3 billion worldwide. Avatar‘s immersive 3D technology and the imaginative world of Pandora captivated audiences for over 8 months during its theatrical release.

Between 2009 and 2022, 3D technology made huge strides, building excitement for the release of Avatar: The Way of Water. After playing in cinemas for over a year, the film earned $2.3 billion globally, making it almost as successful as the first Avatar movie.

Following the success of The Way of Water, James Cameron released the third Avatar film, Avatar: Fire & Ash, on December 19, 2025. Despite using a similar storyline to previous films, it quickly earned over $1 billion worldwide, reaching $1.091 billion by January 6, 2026. While Fire & Ash remained the top film in the US and Canada, it experienced a 29% drop in ticket sales during its second week and a further 37% decline in its third week, according to Deadline.

Although the recent drop in viewers for Fire & Ash might seem like a result of The Way of Water coming out around the same time, it’s also due to a lot of other strong movies being released.

‘Avatar: Fire & Ash’s Biggest Current Box Office Rivals


20th Century Studios

With Fire & Ash still showing in cinemas and earning a lot of money, it needs to do better than other films at the box office to reach between $2 and $3 billion in total earnings. Although it still has time to achieve this, both anticipated and surprise movie releases could challenge its success.

One major challenge for the film is Zootopia 2, Disney’s popular sequel, which has already earned more at the box office domestically than Fire & Ash. Zootopia 2 has made $366 million in the U.S. and Canada, while Fire & Ash has brought in $311 million. Globally, Zootopia 2 has performed a little better, with total earnings of $1.6 billion. Another factor impacting performance is The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants, which has earned over $113 million since December 19, 2025.

While big movies like SpongeBob and Zootopia 2 were predicted to dominate the box office, Fire & Ash has also been affected by the surprising success of smaller films. For example, few people expected the erotic thriller The Housemaid, starring Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried, to earn $95 million worldwide in just three weeks. Similarly, the independent film Marty Supreme from A24 exceeded expectations, bringing in $60 million globally in its first two weeks.

Surprisingly, even the remake of Anaconda earned $90 million internationally in its first two weeks. These four films have already created challenges for Avatar 3, and this could be a sign of tougher times ahead as the movie faces more competition. While popular films like Wicked: For Good are starting to see fewer viewers, smaller releases like The Plague (which increased its viewership by 1,600%!) are also making it harder for Fire & Ash to succeed.

Can ‘Avatar: Fire & Ash’ Hit Its Goals?


Walt Disney Pictures

A movie’s success at the box office largely depends on how long it stays in theaters. The longer a film plays, the more potential it has to earn. Considering Avatar played for 34 weeks and Avatar 2 for over 52 weeks, it’s likely Avatar 3 will also have a long theatrical run. However, the film might face tougher competition in the future than it has so far.

January 2026 will see Avatar 3 facing strong competition at the box office. Several highly anticipated horror films are set to release around the same time, including Nia DaCosta’s 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple, Sam Raimi’s Send Help, Johannes Roberts’ Primate, and a new Silent Hill movie. Action fans will also have options like Greenland 2: Migration, Mercy, and All You Need is Kill.

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In February, several new movies will compete in theaters, including Avatar: Fire & Ash, Scream 7, a new Dracula film by Luc Besson, The Strangers: Chapter 3, the animated movie Scarlet from Toho, Emerald Fennell’s adaptation of Wuthering Heights, and How to Make a Killing starring Glen Powell.

Starting in March and continuing afterward, Fire and Ash will face much tougher competition at the box office. Several upcoming releases – including Project Hail Mary, The Bride!, Disney/Pixar’s Hoppers, Ready or Not 2: Here I Come, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, The Mummy, and The Devil Wears Prada 2, as well as Hokum, Mortal Kombat 2, Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu, Masters of the Universe, Scary Movie 6, and Disclosure Day – are all expected to challenge Fire & Ash‘s position at the top, or at least give it a run for its money.

There’s still a good chance Avatar 3 will be a massive success. While it took the first Avatar 41 days and Avatar 2 just 39 days to earn $2 billion at the box office, Avatar 3 is currently on track to reach that milestone within the next three weeks, becoming only the eighth film ever to do so. However, whether it can continue performing well enough to surpass $3 billion remains to be seen.

Source: Box Office Mojo

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2026-01-08 01:19