‘Avatar: Fire and Ash’s Box Office Might End Franchise Streak of #1 Movie of the Year

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James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash is currently meeting expectations at the box office. The sci-fi film has already earned $762 million worldwide, making it a top performer for 2025. While sequels, Avatar 4 and Avatar 5, are planned for 2029 and 2031, Cameron has stated that their production depends on the success of Avatar 3, which needs to perform as well as the first two films.

With a production cost of $350 million, Fire and Ash needs to earn over $1 billion to be considered successful, but early signs are good as audiences are turning out in large numbers. The previous two films in the series both surpassed $1 billion, suggesting this one will too. However, Fire and Ash could end a 16-year run of the franchise dominating the box office. While Avatar and Avatar: The Way of Water were the highest-grossing films in 2009 and 2022, Fire and Ash may not reach that level of success in 2025.

‘Ne Zha 2’ Is Currently the Best Performing Movie of 2025


Beijing Enlight Pictures

The animated film Ne Zha 2, released on January 29, 2025, earned $2.2 billion globally on an $80 million budget. This made it the first non-American, fully animated movie ever to surpass $2 billion in earnings. This was a significant increase from the first Ne Zha film, released in 2019, which grossed $742.7 million.

Surprisingly, the vast majority of ticket sales for the film came from within China itself. The Economist reported that less than 2% of revenue came from outside mainland China, showing just how popular Ne Zha 2 was at home. It was so popular, in fact, that midnight screenings – which are unusual for movies aimed at children – were completely sold out in many places.

With its impressive box office results, Ne Zha 2 now ranks as the fifth highest-grossing film ever, trailing only Titanic, Avatar, Avengers: Endgame, and Avatar: The Way of Water. The question now is whether the new film, Fire and Ash, will be able to break into the top five and displace it.

Can ‘Fire and Ash’ Cross the $2 Billion Mark?


Walt Disney Pictures

It’s unlikely that Fire and Ash will surpass Ne Zha 2 as the highest-grossing film of 2025, as it’s currently underperforming compared to The Way of Water. While Fire and Ash is the top-performing American film of the year and earned $89 million domestically on its opening weekend – exceeding Avatar‘s $77 million debut – this is a considerable drop from the $134.1 million earned by the previous film three years ago. Furthermore, its second weekend earnings of $63 million are 29% lower than the previous installment’s second weekend performance.

To make things even harder, Avatar 3 faces much tougher competition than The Way of Water did. While the previous film only competed with Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, the new movie is currently up against several well-received films like The Housemaid, Marty Supreme, David, and The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants.

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Despite being a visually impressive film, Fire and Ash is facing tough competition at the box office. Being the third movie in the series also presents a challenge. While The Way of Water benefited from a long 13-year gap since the last film, this new installment hasn’t generated the same level of excitement among fans, and its less favorable reviews on Rotten Tomatoes are likely impacting its performance.

What does this all mean for the future of the Avatar movies? James Cameron probably won’t be happy unless the latest film makes at least $2 billion. He’s also expressed frustration recently about the growing popularity of streaming services. Because of this, he might decide that future Avatar films won’t be as successful as the earlier ones, and Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 could end up being cancelled.

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2026-01-01 03:33