Avatar: Fire and Ash Box Office Still Trails Way of Water Despite Media’s “Triumph” Narrative

Hollywood publications are reporting that Avatar: Fire and Ash is a huge box office success, similar to the original Avatar. News stories highlight impressive ticket sales, consistently strong performance, and new records for the franchise, suggesting it’s once again a dominant force in theaters worldwide.

However, when you consider the full picture – particularly when comparing it to Avatar: The Way of Water – that initial celebration seems less impressive.

While Fire and Ash is doing well as a modern blockbuster, it’s not performing as strongly as Avatar in most key areas.

The Raw Numbers: Strong, But Clearly Smaller

As reported by Deadline, Avatar: Fire and Ash has earned $760.4 million globally after just two weekends in theaters. Of that total, $542.7 million came from international audiences. The film added another $181.2 million overseas this weekend, with ticket sales dropping only 25% from the previous week – which industry experts see as a very positive sign.

There’s no disputing those totals. The issue is what they’re being compared against.

The Way of Water Set a Much Higher Bar

Around the same time after its release, Avatar: The Way of Water was already significantly more successful.

As a film buff, I was blown away by how huge the opening weekend was for the 2022 sequel – it brought in a massive $441.6 million worldwide! That completely crushed the $345 million start of Fire and Ash. And it didn’t stop there. Within about ten days, The Way of Water had already climbed to around $855 million globally, and that’s when you just knew it was going to be something special – eventually, it soared past $2.3 billion worldwide, which is incredible!

However, Fire and Ash is currently earning almost $100 million less at this stage, even though audiences now rely more on higher-priced viewing options.

China and IMAX Can’t Close the Gap

According to Deadline, the film Fire and Ash has earned $99.6 million in China, making it just the second Hollywood movie of 2025 to nearly reach $100 million in that market. Worldwide, IMAX screenings have brought in $96 million, highlighting how important premium screens have been to the film’s success.

Those numbers sound impressive in isolation. But once again, the comparison matters.

China played a much bigger role in the success of The Way of Water, and more theaters now have IMAX technology compared to 2022. This means Fire and Ash has access to more high-end viewing options – things like IMAX – but is still not performing as well as the previous film.

The Ticket-Price Reality the Headlines Ignore

A key detail often left out of reports is that tickets for 2025 events cost more than they did in 2022.

Because of rising ticket prices from things like inflation, IMAX, 3D, and premium formats, the same amount of money at the box office doesn’t get you as many movie tickets as it used to.

This indicates that Fire and Ash isn’t just making less money than The Way of Water at this stage—it’s likely reaching a smaller overall audience, despite the higher price of each ticket.

When viewed through that lens, the gap becomes more significant, not less.

Why the “Triumph” Framing Feels Misleading

Trade coverage has leaned heavily on:

Franchise-wide totals crossing $6 billion
Market holds instead of overall pace
Premium-format dominance rather than audience scale

Those points aren’t inaccurate, but they avoid the main issue: Is Avatar: The Way of Water living up to the hype as the next installment in such a successful film series?

So far, the answer appears to be no.

The Bottom Line

Avatar: Fire and Ash is a hit — just not the kind of hit the media is presenting it as.

Measured against The Way of Water, it is:

Opening smaller
Tracking lower in early global totals
Leaning more heavily on premium pricing
Likely reaching fewer moviegoers overall

Just because something isn’t perfect doesn’t mean it’s a failure. However, celebrating it as a huge success right now seems a bit too early – and could even be deceptive.

If future Avatar movies are like this one, the series is still alive and well, though it’s definitely become more grounded and less ambitious than before.

2025-12-29 17:58