Avatar: Fire & Ash Box Office Predictions: $115 Million Opening Weekend

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Despite a challenging year for movie theaters, 2025 is ending strongly with the release of the eagerly awaited Avatar: Fire & Ash. Industry analysts at Cinelytic predicted this film would significantly boost ticket sales in the final months of the year, and it appears to be living up to those expectations.

Only seven films ever made have earned over $2 billion worldwide. Remarkably, James Cameron directed three of them: Titanic (1997, $2.26 billion), Avatar (2009, $2.92 billion), and Avatar: The Way of Water (2022, $2.34 billion). Cameron recently responded to criticism about dedicating thirty years to the Avatar series.

James Cameron’s latest film, Avatar: Fire & Ice, is expected to be a huge success, potentially making him a billionaire. Following the success of his previous films which earned $2 billion, this third Avatar installment is opening in over 3,800 theaters on Friday and is predicted to easily top the box office charts. While estimates range from $90 to $105 million for its opening weekend, considering recent box office trends, we predict Avatar: Fire & Ice will earn $115.8 million.

The Avatar Franchise Is More Known For Longevity Than Big Debuts

James Cameron consistently defies typical box office patterns more than any other director. Most films open with a large initial surge in ticket sales, then see those numbers drop quickly over the following 10 to 20 weeks. A good example of this is Avatar: Endgame.

Avengers: Endgame had a record-breaking opening weekend, earning $357.1 million – a record that still holds over six years later. While it started strong, ticket sales decreased by 58.7%, 57.1%, and 52.6% in the following three weeks, bringing its total earnings to $771.3 million after one month.

The movie stayed in theaters for 16 more weeks, but only earned another $100 million, finishing its theatrical run with a total of $858.3 million domestically. This is typical for most large-budget films, as significant drops in viewership are now common after the opening weekend—often around 50%. However, James Cameron managed to defy these expectations.

Titanic premiered in mid-December 1997, earning $28.6 million and immediately becoming the number one movie in the country. It stayed in first place for an incredible 15 weeks, not being dethroned until April 1998. This impressive run makes it the second-longest-running box office champion of all time, just behind E.T., which held the top spot for 16 weeks.

The movie played in theaters for 41 weeks and had an incredible run, actually increasing ticket sales week after week for the first few months. It didn’t see a major drop in sales – never falling more than 50% – until nearly nine months after its release in September 1998.

Both Avatar movies performed similarly in theaters. They both opened with strong numbers, became box office hits, and maintained impressive viewership with only small declines in ticket sales each week. The original Avatar, released in December 2009, earned $77 million on its opening weekend and stayed at number one for seven weeks. For the first sixteen weeks, it never experienced a drop in weekly revenue of more than 50%.

After a 13-year wait, Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) proved incredibly popular, opening to $134.1 million at the box office. It stayed in first place for seven weeks. Although it experienced a significant drop of 52.8% in its second weekend, the film still earned an impressive $2.3 billion globally and $684 million in the US and Canada, with relatively small declines each week following.

Cinelytic predicts Avatar: Fire & Ash will earn over $2 billion worldwide, which appears likely considering the strong audience response to the previous two Avatar films. The attached preview for Avengers: Doomsday is also expected to boost ticket sales.

The Housemaid, David and Spongebob Squarepants Should Still Put Up Solid Numbers

In the past, when a huge film like Avatar: Fire & Ash was released, other studios would usually avoid opening movies on the same date. But this year is different, with three films offering a contrast in style: The Housemaid from Lionsgate, David from Angel Studios, and Paramount’s The Spongebob Movie: Search for Squarepants.

Based on Freida McFadden’s 2022 novel, The Housemaid stars Sydney Sweeney as a woman who takes a live-in housekeeping job for a wealthy couple, played by Amanda Seyfried and Brandon Sklenar. Directed by Paul Feig, the movie is expected to come in second place at the box office this weekend, earning around $22.6 million.

The animated movie David, from Angel Studios, which retells the classic story of David and Goliath for families, is predicted to be a major success at the box office. It earned $20.8 million this weekend, placing it in third place. The film is based on the Young David TV series and, like Angel Studios’ 2023 hit Sound of Freedom, is expected to appeal to faith-based audiences.

The new Spongebob movie, The Search for Squarepants, marks the return of the Bikini Bottom characters to the big screen after a seven-year hiatus since Sponge Out of Water in 2015. Although Sponge Out of Water opened with $55 million, early box office numbers show The Search for Squarepants is performing more modestly, debuting in fourth place with $16.9 million.

Take a look at our predicted top 10 below for the weekend of December 19-21.

Box Office Predictions – December 19-21
Movie Title Predicted Opening Weekend Gross
Avatar: Fire & Ash $115.8 million
The Housemaid $22.6 million
David $20.8 million
The Spongebob Movie: The Search For Squarepants $16.9 million
Zootopia 2 $14.7 million
Five Nights at Freddy’s 2 $9.5 million
Wicked: For Good $4.3 million
Dhurandhar $1.9 million
Now You See Me: Now You Don’t $1.6 million
Jujutsu Kaisen: Execution $1.2 million

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2025-12-18 02:20