Over the past few years, Netflix has become a consistent contender at the Oscars. However, the film Emilia Pérez faced some issues that hurt its chances, and Netflix is still looking for its first Best Picture win. Despite ten nominations in the category, they haven’t won yet.
Netflix is aiming for several Oscar nominations in 2026 with a combination of its own films and movies it picked up from film festivals. The hit film KPop Demon Hunters is expected to receive multiple nominations and potentially win an award. Rian Johnson’s Wake Up Dead Man is also hoping to be nominated for Best Screenplay, and could be in the running for other awards as well.
For months, films by directors like Kathryn Bigelow, Guillermo del Toro, Noah Baumbach, and Clint Bentley have been predicted to be major award contenders. This creates a challenge for Netflix as the awards campaign intensifies, forcing them to decide which film to prioritize and invest in most heavily.
Netflix Has Too Many Best Picture Contenders To Support Them All
When Netflix picked up Train Dreams at the Sundance Film Festival in early 2025, it quickly became a potential awards season favorite. The film received excellent reviews and attracted well-known actors like Joel Egerton, Felicity Jones (an Oscar nominee), and William H. Macy (an Oscar winner). Adding to its promise was a script written by Greg Kwedar, who received an Oscar nomination for Sing Sing.
However, it joined a group of films already considered strong Oscar hopefuls. Titles like A House of Dynamite, Jay Kelly, and Frankenstein had a good track record suggesting they’d be major contenders. Films like Wake Up Dead Man, Nouvelle Vague, and Ballad of a Small Player were also hoping to be recognized.
During the fall film festival season, Ballad of a Small Player struggled to gain traction, and while Nouvelle Vague was generally liked, it didn’t generate much Oscar buzz. Wake Up Dead Man might receive some attention, but it’s unlikely to be a serious contender for Best Picture. This leaves Netflix with four remaining films to focus on: A House of Dynamite, Frankenstein, Jay Kelly, and Train Dreams.
| Movie | Rotten Tomatoes Score | Metacritic Score |
|---|---|---|
| A House of Dynamite | 79% Critics | 75 |
| Frankenstein | 86% Critics | 78 |
| Jay Kelly | 79% Critics | 62 |
| Train Dreams | 98% Critics | 85 |
I was really impressed with A House of Dynamite and Jay Kelly after seeing them debut at Venice. Honestly, I thought they were strong contenders for a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars – I even included both in my early predictions for the 2026 awards!
Although Frankenstein didn’t initially receive a warm reception at its Venice premiere, leading some to question its awards potential, it bounced back at TIFF. Winning the runner-up prize for the People’s Choice Award sparked renewed interest, and positive buzz continues to build as its Netflix release date of November 7th approaches.
Because of these shifts, the rankings on Netflix are constantly updating. While many previously expected A House of Dynamite to receive several nominations, its chances for a Best Picture nomination are now less certain. Some even believe Bigelow’s film should be considered a higher priority, at least fourth on Netflix’s list. At the very least, Frankenstein is now ranked above A House of Dynamite.
It will be fascinating to see how the wider release of Train Dreams and Jay Kelly impacts the current landscape. While Train Dreams is more critically acclaimed and seems like a typical Oscar contender, Jay Kelly is a bigger production with a more well-known cast, including Noah Baumbach, George Clooney, Adam Sandler, and Laura Dern.
It’s understandable that Netflix is promoting all four of these films, considering the well-known actors involved. However, they likely can’t seriously compete for awards with all of them. Netflix would be better off focusing its resources and awards campaign on just two, or perhaps three, of the movies. Since A House of Dynamite isn’t gaining much traction, choosing which films to prioritize might be simpler.
Netflix is likely hoping Jay Kelly and Frankenstein will earn them the most Oscar nominations and please well-known actors and filmmakers. However, these films probably won’t win Best Picture. A better strategy might be to focus on Train Dreams and hope its emotional story resonates with Academy voters.
ScreenRant‘s additional Oscars predictions:
- Oscars 2026 Best Picture Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Director Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Actor Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Actress Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Supporting Actor Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Supporting Actress Predictions: Nominees & Winner
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2025-10-28 01:29