70 Stats To Know As You Finalize Your 2026 Oscar Predictions

The Oscars 2026 are almost here – less than a week away! We’ll finally find out which films win in all 24 categories. After a very competitive season, Sinners and One Battle After Another are currently the frontrunners.

With the 98th Academy Awards coming up, many people enjoy predicting the winners. Whether you’re doing it for fun, playing a game with friends, or just trying to pick the right films, it’s helpful to be well-informed when making your choices.

The Oscars often have unexpected winners, meaning correctly predicting the results requires a good understanding of each film. But predictions aren’t just guesswork – nearly a century of Academy Awards history, combined with current trends and other award show results, can also help.

I’ve put together a list of 70 statistics to give you some helpful background as you finalize your Oscar predictions. I’ll be updating my own winner predictions later this week with a final look at the data.

Best Picture Stats

Still courtesy of Warner Bros.

Historically, the film with the most nominations has gone on to win Best Picture 61 times. However, that hasn’t happened very often recently – only three times in the last decade. This year, Sinners is hoping to make it 62, after receiving a record-breaking 16 nominations.

Most Best Picture winners also excel in other Oscar categories—88 out of the last 97, to be exact. In the past 15 years, some films like Oppenheimer and Everything Everywhere All At Once have won in seven categories, which is the most of any recent winner.

Winning in either Screenplay category is a strong indicator that a film will also win Best Picture. This has happened 62 times out of the 97 years the award has been given. This year, the frontrunners in the Screenplay categories, Sinners and One Battle After Another, are hoping to make that 63 out of 98.

Winning the ‘Best Editing’ category is a reliable indicator of overall success. Thirty-six out of the 91 total winners have also taken home this award, and this trend has continued for the past three years, highlighting a strong connection between winning Best Editing and overall victory.

Only six films in history have won the Academy Award for Best Picture without also receiving a nomination for Best Director. This is a disadvantage for Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, The Secret Agent, and Train Dreams.

The film One Battle After Another is a strong contender for an Oscar, leading the pack with 40 wins in comparable awards categories.

Winning a Golden Globe for either Best Motion Picture – Drama or Best Motion Picture – Musical/Comedy is a strong indicator of success, as this has happened in 51 out of 83 past cases. This bodes well for this year’s winners: Hamnet (Drama) and One Battle After Another (Musical/Comedy).

The Producers Guild of America Awards are the most reliable predictor of the Best Picture Oscar winner. In the last 25 years, 18 of their winners have gone on to win the Oscar. This year, the Producers Guild Award went to One Battle After Another.

As a fan, I’ve noticed the Directors Guild of America Awards are a really good sign of who might win the big prize. Since 2000, the winner of the DGA award has gone on to win the Oscar 17 times! It even happened with One Battle After Another – a clear indicator they were on a winning streak.

The Best Cast award at the Actor Awards has a surprisingly good track record of predicting the Best Picture winner – it’s been accurate half the time since 1995. This year, the film Sinners took home the Best Cast award.

Best Director Stats

Historically, the film that wins Best Director often also goes on to win Best Picture. In fact, out of 97 times, the same film has taken home both awards 70 times.

The number of times a film’s director has also been its cinematographer has dipped a little bit since the year 2000. They’ve worked together on 16 films during that time, and notably, on the last three films released.

The Directors Guild of America Awards are a very strong indicator of who will win the Oscar in this category. Since 1948, the Oscars have only chosen a different winner eight times. This year’s DGA Award winner was Paul Thomas Anderson for his work on One Battle After Another.

Recently, the Academy Awards have seen more surprising wins. Five of the eight times a director won despite not being favored happened in the last 30 years, most recently in 2019 when Bong Joon-ho’s Parasite beat Sam Mendes’ 1917. This trend could encourage directors like Ryan Coogler, whose film is Sinners, and others to keep aiming for the top.

Paul Thomas Anderson is the frontrunner for directing awards this year, having already won 36 precursor awards.

He’s already won major awards from the Directors Guild of America (DGA), the Golden Globes (GG), the Critics Choice Association (CCA), and BAFTA. If he wins an Oscar, he’ll be only the tenth person to achieve that impressive sweep of all five awards.

In 2012, Ben Affleck achieved a rare feat: he won the Directors Guild of America (DGA), Golden Globe, Critics Choice Award, and BAFTA awards. However, despite these wins, he wasn’t even nominated for the Best Director Oscar – a situation that has only happened once in history.

Best Actor Stats

As a follower of the awards season, I’ve noticed a really strong pattern: whoever wins Best Actor at the Actor Awards usually goes on to win the same award at the bigger event. It’s happened an incredible 24 out of 31 times! That’s exciting for Michael B. Jordan, because he just won for his work in Sinners, and that really boosts his chances.

Despite the Academy Awards and the actors’ choices disagreeing twice in the past five years, there’s still a chance for Timothée Chalamet (for Marty Supreme), Wagner Moura (for The Secret Agent), Leonardo DiCaprio (for One Battle After Another), and Ethan Hawke (for Blue Moon).

20. If Chalamet does win, he’ll be the second-youngest ever winner of Best Actor.

As a film buff, I’ve noticed a trend with the Best Actor Oscar – the winners are usually a bit older. The average age is around 45.2, and it seems voters tend to favor experience. Looking at this year’s nominees, Joaquin Phoenix and Jeffrey Wright are right in that sweet spot; they’ll be 39 and almost 50 when the awards are handed out, which historically gives them a pretty good chance.

Joaquin Moura won Best Actor – Drama at the Golden Globes, an award that has accurately predicted the Oscar winner in that category 17 times since the year 2000.

If Ricardo Moura wins Best Actor, he’ll be the first actor from a non-English language film to do so since Roberto Benigni won for Life Is Beautiful in 1997.

Jordan hopes to become the sixth Black director to win the Best Director award, following in the footsteps of Sidney Poitier, Denzel Washington, Jamie Foxx, Forest Whitaker, and Will Smith.

25. Chalamet enters the Oscars with the most Best Actor precursor wins, with 24.

Winning Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes is a strong indicator of Oscar success, but it’s only happened twice since the year 2000.

27. The other win came at CCA, which has 17 matches since 2000.

Best Actress Stats

Similar to the Best Actor category, the Actor Awards are a good indicator of who might win. They’ve correctly predicted the winner 21 times out of 31, though their accuracy has dropped recently, succeeding only twice in the last five years. Jessie Buckley has already received an award for her performance in Hamnet.

It’s almost certain Buckley will win the Oscar. She’s only the tenth performer ever to receive awards from the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Association, BAFTA, and the Screen Actors Guild – and all nine previous winners of that combination went on to win the Oscar for Best Actress.

So it’s not surprising that Buckley is the frontrunner for Best Actress at the Oscars, having won the most pre-Oscar awards – a total of 38.

Rose Byrne is the only real competition, having already won Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes.

Generally, the actress who wins the Best Actress award is around 37 or 38 years old. This year, the nominees’ ages are close to that average: Buckley is 36, Emma Stone is 37, and Renate Reinsve is 38.

If Emma Stone wins, it will be her third Oscar, making her only the fifth woman ever to achieve that feat. The other four are Katharine Hepburn, Meryl Streep, Ingrid Bergman, and Frances McDormand.

Best Supporting Actor Stats

The Actors Awards are usually a very good indicator of who will win in this acting category, correctly predicting the winner 22 times out of 31, including the last nine years. Sean Penn, for his performance in One Battle After Another, won this year, making him the current frontrunner.

Following the Screen Actors Guild award, the Golden Globe is the next best indicator of Oscar success, having aligned with the final winner 20 times since the year 2000. This year’s winner was Stellan Skarsgård for his performance in Sentimental Value.

The BAFTA awards are also a strong predictor in this category, having aligned with the Oscars’ winners 17 times since the year 2000. This win represented a significant early achievement for Penn during the awards season.

If Sean Penn wins this award, he’ll have won three Oscars throughout his career, making him one of only four male actors to achieve that feat, alongside Jack Nicholson, Daniel Day-Lewis, and Walter Brennan. This would be his first win in the Best Supporting Actor category.

Despite early success with critics groups, giving him 22 wins leading up to the awards, Benicio del Toro (known for his work in One Battle After Another) is still a strong contender this evening.

Jacob Elordi’s win at the Critics Choice Awards looks promising for his chances. However, Guillermo del Toro and Delroy Lindo haven’t won any major awards so far – not at the Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild Awards, Critics Choice Awards, or BAFTAs. Historically, since 1998, every actor who’s won Best Supporting Actor has first won at least one of those awards.

40. In case it happens, Lindo would be the seventh Black actor to win Best Supporting Actor.

Best Supporting Actress Stats

The Actor Awards are a strong indicator of who will win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress. They’ve correctly predicted the winner 23 out of 31 times, including 15 of the last 16 years and 21 times since the year 2000. This makes Amy Madigan, nominated for her role in Weapons, a strong contender.

She also has a strong argument because she won the most preliminary rounds – 38 – throughout the season.

43. This includes her win at CCA, which has matched with the Oscars 18 times since 2000.

Also, BAFTA recognizes a similar track record, supporting the choice of Wunmi Mosaku (from Sinners).

Looking back, Penélope Cruz’s Best Supporting Actress win in 2008 for Vicky Cristina Barcelona is unique in recent years. She only won a major award leading up to the Oscars at the BAFTAs – a pattern we haven’t seen since then.

Teyana Taylor, with her Golden Globe win and the film One Battle After Another, is a strong competitor. Historically, winners of this award have frequently gone on to win the Oscar, happening 16 times since 2000. However, Taylor’s win is unique because it’s her most significant award so far, unlike past winners who had already achieved major recognition.

I’m really hoping either Mosaku or Taylor wins – it would be amazing to see either of them become the eleventh Black actress to ever win this award. It feels like a significant moment for representation, and I’d be thrilled for either of them!

Screenplay Stats

Winning in a Screenplay category can often boost a film’s chances of winning Best Picture. Historically, the winner of Best Adapted Screenplay is a stronger indicator of a future Best Picture win, having happened 41 times.

When it comes to predicting the Oscar for Best Adapted Screenplay, the Writers Guild of America Awards are the most reliable indicator. The WGA winner has aligned with the Oscar winner in 25 out of 42 times, and even more frequently – 17 times – since the year 2000. This year, One Battle After Another is expected to continue this trend.

The Writers Guild of America (WGA) award for Original Screenplay has correctly predicted the Oscar winner in 25 out of 42 times, including 16 times since the year 2000. A previous winner of this award, Sinners, is currently considered the frontrunner.

51. Sinners has the most precursor wins for Original Screenplay, 41 wins.

52. One Battle After Another has the most precursor wins for Adapted Screenplay, 46 wins.

I’m really hoping Ryan Coogler can win for Original Screenplay! If he does, he’d be only the second Black filmmaker ever to achieve that, following in Jordan Peele’s footsteps after Get Out. It would be amazing to see!

Other Category Stats

54. KPop Demon Hunters enters with the most precursor wins for Best Animated Feature, 44.

55. Sentimental Value enters with the most precursors for Best International Feature Film, 28.

Typically, the film that wins Best International Feature Film also receives a nomination for Best Picture. This year, that makes Sentimental Value or The Secret Agent the frontrunners to win.

57. Sinners has the most precursor wins for Best Cinematography, 40.

58. If it wins, Autumn Durald Arkapaw will be the first female to win Cinematography.

Despite stiff competition, One Battle After Another is a strong contender, especially after winning an award from the American Society of Cinematographers recognizing Michael Bauman’s cinematography. Historically, the winner of this award has gone on to win the final award 18 times out of 39.

60. Sinners also has the most precursor wins for Best Casting, 31.

61. Frankenstein is in the lead for Best Costume Design after 19 precursor wins.

62. However, Sinners‘ Ruth E. Carter is also a two-time winner of the category, so keep her in mind.

Guillermo del Toro’s monster movie has won the most awards leading up to the Best Makeup and Hairstyling category, with a total of 25 wins.

64. F1 is positioned as a strong Best Sound winner after 13 precursor wins.

Ludwig Göransson is the frontrunner to win Best Original Score for his work on Sinners, having already won 49 awards from various precursor events.

66. One Battle After Another enters with the most precursor wins for Best Film Editing, 23.

67. KPop Demon Hunters has a one-win lead over Sinners for precursors for Best Original Song.

68. The Perfect Neighbor has the most precursor wins for Best Documentary Feature at 34.

69. Avatar: Fire and Ash is the Best Visual Effects frontrunner with 25 precursor wins.

Diane Warren is eager to win her first Oscar for Best Original Song after being nominated sixteen times without a win. Remarkably, she’s been nominated every year for the past nine years.

While these numbers shouldn’t be the sole basis for your 2026 Oscars predictions, we hope they simplify some categories or help you decide between very close contenders.

2026-03-10 19:19